Climatic Change (2015) 132:157–171
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Fig. 4 Historic and projected global CO2 emissions. Historic emissions from Boden et al (2013). Projected
emissions through 2035 from Royal Dutch Shell plc (2013), International Energy Agency (2013), BP (2014) and
ExxonMobil (2014a, b). BP, ExxonMobil, and Shell project a continued high reliance on fossil energy, well
above the pathway (IEA 450) that would result in a 50 % probability of keeping global temperatures below the
2 °C policy target. Shell’s BOceans^ scenario is one in which energy choices are shaped primarily by market
forces, their BMountains^ scenario is one in which government policies play a more dominant role. IEA Bcurrent
policies^ scenario assumes policies and measures in place as of 2013; Bnew policies^ scenario assumes additional
policies and measures announced by governments but not fully enacted
2) They continued to produce them well after the danger was scientifically established and
recognized by international policymakers;
3) They have worked systematically to prevent the political action that might have stabilized
or reduced GHG emissions, including through unethical practices such as promoting
disinformation; and
4) While ostensibly acknowledging the threat represented by unabated reliance on fossil
fuels, they nevertheless continue to engage in business practices that will lead to their
expanded production and use for decades to come.
The major investor-owned fossil energy producers companies have done all of this even
while an alternative vision had been articulated and was possible. Through their actions, they
have not only invested in, but sought to guarantee, a future that serves the interests of their
shareholders, employees, and executives, but threatens the health, well-being and prosperity of
virtually everyone else. Their power and influence on the global response to climate change is
substantial. The fact that others—governments, emitting industries, and individuals—have
responsibilities, too, does not obviate this point.
Much time has been lost since 1988, when an orderly transition to clean energy could and
should have begun. Yet, it still may be possible for fossil fuel companies to make a transition