AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE
IN THE PHILIPPINES:
Subnational Impacts of Selected Investment Strategies and Policies
Timothy S. Thomas, Angga Pradesha and Nicostrato Perez
B
eing a nation of many islands spanning a considerable range of latitudes, the Philippines is noted for
its climatic and ecological diversity. Significant climate
differences exist, not least due to the country’s extensive coastal exposure and mountainous areas. For these
reasons, the impacts of climate change on agriculture
are likely to differ significantly across the country. Apart
from the more well-known phenomenon of cyclones,
which have increased in frequency and strength in recent years, what in fact is the impact of climate change
on agriculture in the Philippines? Will it be wholly negative, or might some parts of the country actually be positively affected? And if the impact on agriculture will be
positive in some areas and negative in others, could
identifying these differences ahead of time help people
to adapt in locations projected to be negatively affected? This policy note summarizes the results of biophysical and economic modeling analyses presented in
the forthcoming International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and National Economic and Development
Authority (NEDA) manuscript, The Future of Philippine
Agriculture: Scenarios, Policies, and Investments under
Climate Change, edited by Mark W. Rosegrant, Arsenio
Balisacan, and Mercedita Sombilla.
CURRENT DIFFERENCES AMONG REGIONS
The aggregated regions used in this policy note are presented in Figure 1. The Cordillera Administrative Region
(CAR) and Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
(ARMM) are treated separately but are also included in
the larger groupings in which they fall (Luzon and Mindanao, respectively). The wettest parts of the country
PROJECT POLICY NOTE 2 | SEPTEMBER 2015
appear to be in eastern Mindanao, although high rainfall is also found in eastern Visayas and in the mountains where CAR is located (Figure 2; Table 1). The main
agricultural areas of Luzon appear to be among the driest in the nation, but they still have considerable rainfall
levels of 1,400 to 1,900 millimeters per year. While it is
not universally true that the very driest portions of the
other major groups (Visayas and Mindanao) are the
most densely cultivated, as a general rule they have relatively low rainfall levels by Philippine standards (which
would be considered high in many other countries) and
are the preferred areas for agriculture. The rainfall map
for the wettest three consecutive months of the year—
indicating the approximate rainfall in a growing season—are shown in Figure 3 and are aggregated in Table
2. The general distribution of rainfall in the wettest
three months (calculated at each pixel, so the actual
three-month period varies) follows a similar geographic
distribution to that of yearly rainfall.
Figure 1. Regional groupings underlying the analysis
ARMM
CAR
Luzon
Mindanao
Visayas
Source: Constructed by authors based on GADM (2010)