to the carbon accounting NGO CDP that it emitted approximately 418.4 Mt of CO 2e during the
reporting period 1 January 2014 - 31 December 2014. This is more than the total national
emissions of most individual nation-states in 2012. 181
V.
Prescriptions for Achieving International Commitments and Climate
Recovery
A.
Prescription to achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature
goals (ClientEarth, Plan B)
Under the Paris Agreement, parties have agreed to hold the increase in global average
temperature to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and “pursue efforts” to limit this
increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 182 These temperature goals imply that there is a
finite quantity of GHGs that may be emitted into the atmosphere, above which the temperature
goal(s) will be exceeded. “Carbon budget” is the established terminology used to refer to the
calculation of the total (i.e., not country or emitter-specific) quantity of GHGs (in carbon dioxide
equivalent) the atmosphere can accommodate before exceeding these temperature goals.
In order to achieve these temperature goals, the Paris Agreement commits countries to the
submission and implementation183 of nationally determined emissions reduction targets (known
as NDCs).184 However, the Parties to the Paris Agreement have acknowledged that their intended
NDCs were insufficient in the aggregate to meet either the 2 or 1.5°C temperature goal, 185 and a
June 2016 article in Nature found that current NDCs will result in median warming of 2.6–3.1°C
by 2100.186
There are a number of approaches to determining each country’s remaining carbon
budget, so as to allow countries to ramp up their existing NDCs under the Paris Agreement to
meet the temperature goals in Article 2 of the Agreement. One approach would be to distribute
the remaining budget on the basis of per capita shares (on the principle that no one person has a
right to consume a greater share of the atmosphere’s storage capacity than any other). Such a
division produces an equalizing effect of “contraction and convergence.” 187
There are two obvious objections to this approach. First, developing countries may argue
that an even distribution of the remaining carbon budget fails to account for or reflect historic
181
Calculated by reference to the CAIT Climate Data Explorer. See Historical Emissions, CAIT CLIMATE DATA
EXPLORER,
HTTP://CAIT.WRI.ORG/HISTORICAL/COUNTRY%20GHG%20EMISSIONS? INDICATOR[]=TOTAL%20GHG%20EMISSION
S%20EXCLUDING%20LANDUSE%20CHANGE%20AND%20FORESTRY&INDICATOR[]=TOTAL%20GHG%20EMISSIONS%20INCLUDING%20LANDUSE%20CHANGE%20AND%20FORESTRY&YEAR[]=2012&SORTIDX=NAN&CHARTTYPE=GEO.
182
ClientEarth brief, at ¶¶ 58-60.
183
Arguably implied under Article 4(2). Paris Agreement, Art. 4(2), Dec. 12, 2015, T.I.A.S. No. 16-1104.
184
ClientEarth brief, at ¶57.
185
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first
session, Decision 1/CP.21: Adoption of the Paris Agreement, ¶17 (Dec. 12, 2015); ClientEarth brief, at ¶ 62.
186
Joeri Rogelj et al., Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C, 534
NATURE 631–639 (2016), http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/abs/nature18307.html; ClientEarth
brief, at ¶ 65.
187
Plan B brief, at § 7 (pgs. 50-51).
39
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