agriculture and in turn mitigate vulnerability to food insecurity. On the other hand, this could be countered by cost of fertilizer which lowers agricultural income (-1.22) but can be compensated by expenditure on farm to market roads (0.02). Effects of climate shocks on the likelihood of being food insecure The models also consistently indicate that increasing crop farming income effect decrease in vulnerability. Hence, higher rainfall or unstable rainfall, extremely cold, or extremely hot temperature may lead to higher vulnerability of having malnourished children. This is the basis of vulnerability of the households to food insecurity in the future. The expected changes in climate variables, specifically rainfall and temperature effect varying changes in vulnerability of households to food insecurity. Table 12 shows that Benguet, Camarines Sur, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Sarangani will likely have more households to be food insecure compared to their present food insecurity figure based on the rainfall model. In the case of the temperature model, there are more provinces that will have their households experience more vulnerability. Only Agusan Del Norte, Camiguin, Northern Samar and Surigao Del Norte will not have increased food insecurity. It can be noted that Surigao del Sur and Marinduque has the highest expected jump in food insecurity with respect to rainfall and temperature model respectively. Maps 4 and 5 show the location of the 16 provinces. Table 12. Actual, predicted and projected prevalence of malnutrition, CBMS 2007-2010 Province Agusan Del Norte Batanes Batangas Benguet Camarines Sur Camiguin Kalinga Marinduque Northern Samar Occidental Mindoro Oriental Mindoro Romblon Surigao Del Norte Surigao Del Sur Tarlac Sarangani Rainfall Projected (2011-2040) 4.02% 2.82% 3.38% 2.03% 3.08% 2.75% 1.95% 3.35% 5.95% 6.72% 1.78% 1.81% 1.79% 1.33% 11.94% 11.87% 4.73% 3.86% 11.05% 9.66% 9.11% 8.76% 10.63% 6.33% 4.78% 7.62% 4.40% 8.17% 2.55% 2.30% 4.58% 6.15% Predicted (2007-2010) Temperature Predicted Projected (2007-2010) (2011-2040) 3.99% 3.65% 3.15% 3.49% 3.13% 4.42% 1.97% 3.33% 5.98% 5.99% 1.81% 1.74% 1.81% 2.10% 12.07% 17.22% 4.82% 1.87% 11.36% 14.46% 8.95% 11.06% 10.76% 13.34% 4.76% 4.53% 4.35% 5.62% 2.55% 3.38% 4.63% 5.22% Source of basic data: Pooled CBMS 2007-2010 Census To illustrate this visually, Map 3 and 4 show the projected change in vulnerability across the 16 provinces of CBMS data using the rainfall and temperature models. There are apparent shifts in colors particularly Camarines Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao Del Sur and Sarangani. Map 5 demonstrates the spatial distribution in Surigao Del Norte. CBMS-FAO | 42