Drivers of Global Warming Climate change variables: -CO2 fertilization effects -Increase in global mean temperature -Gradual changes in precipitation -Increase in frequency of extreme weather events -Greater weather variability Adaptive response of food systems Changes in food system assets Changes in food system activities Changes in components of food security Possible changes in food consumption patterns Possible changes in human health Possible changes in nutrition status Source:Anbumozhi and Portugal, 2011 Lobell, et al., looked at crop specifically to assess the impacts of climate change on food security. According to Lobell, et al. (2008), “crops which have relative strong dependence of historical production on rainfall were considered cases with uncertainties” suggesting that it is not sure whether or not climate change would have effect on these crops).”To ascertain which crops would most likely be affected by climate change, they expressed the need for more precise projection of rainfall. Finally, they suggested putting investment (prioritize) on crops that will be least affected by climate change, not a simple changing of planting dates or shifting to other crops. In an earlier work, Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) looked at the potential effects on agricultural production (and hence food security) of climate change. They used a world food trade model to simulate the economic consequences of potential changes in crop yields to estimate changes in world food prices and in the number of people at risk of hunger. One finding is that there seems to be a big disparity between developed and developing countries in terms of agricultural vulnerability. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were tested in terms of CO2 levels, yield changes estimates, and farm-level adaptations. Adaptation included were changes in planting date, variety, crops, and applications of irrigation and fertilizer. In the world food trade model, it is predicted that in the climate change scenario, without direct CO2 effects, world cereal production would be reduced by 11 to 20 percent. Upon inclusion of CO2 effects, yield decreases between 1 to 8 percent. Price increases are estimated to be between ~24-145 percent and the number of hungry people would increase by ~1 percent for every 2-2.5 percent increase in prices. People at risk of hunger increase by 10 percent to almost 60 percent. Upon inclusion of farm adaptation in the world food trade model, world production levels are restored. Scenarios near the high end of the IPCC range of doubled CO2 warming exerted slight to moderate negative on cereal production. The only scenario that yielded positive cereal production was one involving major and costly changes in agricultural systems (i.e., installation of irrigation). In sum, climate change is found to increase disparities in cereal production between developed and developing countries. Building on Rosenzweig and Parry (1994), Parry, et.al (2004) suggests that changes in regional crop yields under each scenario are the result of the interactions among temperature and precipitation effects, direct physiological effects of CO2, and effectiveness and availability of adaptations. Arnell, et al. (2004) on the other hand suggests that “the future impacts of climate change will depend to a large extent on the future economic, demographic, social and political characteristics of the world”. The paper downscaled the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) world-region population and CBMS-FAO | 13