Amicus Curiae Brief presented by
ClientEarth
21 November 2016
found that current NDCs will result in median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees celsius by
2100.51
66. 'Carbon budget' is the established terminology used to refer to the calculation of what
quantity of greenhouse gasses (in carbon dioxide equivalent) the atmosphere can
accommodate. The global carbon budget refers to total world emissions, and does
not differentiate between individual countries. The emissions of private entities,
resulting from their operational activities and their products, are also counted in the
total global carbon budget.
67. In 2014, the IPCC reported that in order to stay within 2 degrees of warming, the
carbon budget as of 2011 was 1000 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent. 52
The results of scientific research have concluded that globally, a third of oil reserves,
half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain
unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to stay within the global carbon budget and meet
the target of 2 degrees celsius.53
68. The carbon budgets and the Paris Agreement have clear implications for the future
activities and operations of the Carbon Majors named in the Petition. Detailed
economic research on 'stranded assets' has been developed in detail by the think
tank Carbon Tracker among others, to describe those fossil fuel reserves held by the
51
Rogelj, et al, 'Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C' Nature 534, 631–639 (30 June 2016).
IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
53
McGlade et al, 'The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C Nature 517, 187–190 (08 January 2015).
52
35
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