emission levels in 2030 that will likely cause a global average temperature increase of over 3°C. 10 Therefore, even if States meet their current commitments under their NDCs, they will not achieve the objective of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C or at the very least to well below 2°C. 21. Therefore, from a human rights perspective, States must not only implement their current NDC, but also strengthen those contributions to meet the targets set out in article 2 of the Paris Agreement and the objectives of the UNFCCC to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. States are aware of the gap between their current commitments and their collective goal, and they agreed in Paris to review the adequacy of their commitments through stocktaking exercises every five years, beginning in 2023. However, it is already clear that States must begin to move beyond their current commitments even before the first stocktaking, in order to close the gap between what is promised and what is necessary. In all of these actions, States must take care to protect the rights of the most vulnerable. The Foreseeable Impacts of Climate Change Upon the Right to Life 22. In general, the greater the increase in average temperature, the greater the effects on the rights to life, health, and other human rights. The foreseeable consequences of even a 2°C rise in average global temperature are dramatic. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, they include an increasing probability of “declining work productivity, morbidity (e.g., dehydration, heat stroke, and heat exhaustion), and mortality from exposure to heat waves. Particularly at risk are agricultural and construction workers as well as children, homeless people, the elderly, and women. 11 23. Climate change will have many direct and indirect effects on the full enjoyment of the right to life. The IPCC’s 2007 assessment report (AR4) projects, with high confidence, an increase in people suffering from death, disease and injury from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts. Climate change will also affect the right to life through: an increase in hunger and malnutrition and related disorders impacting on child growth and development; cardiovascular disease and respiratory morbidity and mortality related to increasing concentrations of ground-level ozone. Climate change will exacerbate weather-related disasters which already have devastating effects on people and their enjoyment of the right to life, particularly in the developing world. For example, an estimated 262 million people were affected by climate disasters annually from 2000 to 2004, of whom over 98 per cent live in developing countries. Tropical cyclone hazards, affecting approximately 120 million people annually, killed an estimated 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000.12 (INDC) prior to the adoption of the Paris Agreement. Once a State submits its instrument of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession to the Paris Agreement, their INDC is converted to an NDC. For more information, see the UNFCCC’s webpage on NDCs, available at: https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions/ndc-registry#eq-2 For information about each State’s NDC, see the UNFCCC’s NDC Registry (interim), available at: http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/Home.aspx 10 UN Environment Programme (UNEP), “The Emissions Gap Report 2017”, available at: https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/22070/EGR_2017.pdf 11 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/, p. 811. 12 Report of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights on the relationship 5