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clear the variable and “unpredictable” character of some values.
In contrast, characteristic examples in ExxonMobil’s advertorials in The New York
Times (an example of a non-peer-reviewed document is also given) include:
• A 1997 Mobil advertorial entitled “Reset the Alarm,” which argues “Let’s face
it: The science of climate change is too uncertain to mandate a plan of action
that could plunge economies into turmoil” [31]. The company added, “We still
don’t know what role man-made greenhouse gases might play in warming the
planet.”
• A 2000 ExxonMobil advertorial entitled “Unsettled Science” (also in The Wall
Street Journal) says “fundamental gaps in knowledge leave scientists unable to
make reliable projections about future changes” [32]. “Scientists remain unable
to confirm,” it claims, “that humans are causing global warming”: “Against this
backdrop of large poorly understood natural variability, it is impossible for
scientists to attribute the recent small surface temperature increase to human
causes.”
• A 2004 ExxonMobil advertorial focuses on uncertainty, stressing the “gaps and
uncertainties that limit our current ability to know the extent to which humans
are affecting climate and to predict future changes caused by both human and
natural forces” [33].
• A 1998 non-peer-reviewed Exxon pamphlet, whose preface was written by then
CEO Lee Raymond, stated that the IPCC’s “discernible human influence”
conclusion was “not peer-reviewed,” though it was [34]. This was despite the
fact that Exxon’s chief climate researcher, Haroon Kheshgi, was a contributing
author to the IPCC chapter in question.
Finding: On the risks of stranded fossil fuel assets, we found this topic discussed
and sometimes quantified in 24 documents of various types, but absent from
advertorials.
Examples: The number of times the concept of stranded fossil fuel assets is
mentioned varies statistically significantly across document categories. In total, 24
of the analyzed documents allude to the concept of stranded fossil fuel assets:
seven peer-reviewed publications, ten non-peer-reviewed publications, and seven
internal documents. No advertorials address the issue.
Stranded assets are discussed in two ways (see table 6 and supplementary
information of Supran and Oreskes (2017) for all examples): (i) Implicit,
qualitative connections between fossil fuel reserves/resources/use and either
greenhouse gas limits or possible climate mitigation policies; and (ii) explicit
quantifications of “cumulative emissions” and/or “carbon budgets” consistent with
greenhouse gas stabilization.
Examples of (i) include: