07
57-L-RWC
Ex)N RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING COMPANY
CORPORATE RESEARCH
P,
O. Ao,( 45, Llnd.n. N. J. 07036
SCIENCE LABORATORIES
OUANE G. LEV lN E, Dir.ctot
BOGE B W,COHEN,
Dlr.ctor
Th.or.ticrl .nd M.thtn.tlc.l Scl.nc.. Llborltory
September 2, 1982
H- N. WEINBERG
Mr. A. M. Natkin
Office of Science and TechnologY
Exxon corporation
1251 Avenue of the Americas
Nevr York, New York 10020
siP
2
198?
Dear AI:
I would like to sunnarize the findings of our resea rch
in climate modeling and place our results in the context of the
existing body of knowledge of the CO2 greenhouse effect.
Although the lncrease of atmosPheric CO2 is well docunented. it has not yet resulted in a measurable change in the
earthis clirnate. The concerns surrounding the possible effects
of increased CO, have been based on the predictions of models
which simulate Ehe earthrs climate. These nodels vary widely in
the level of detail in which clirnate processes are treated and in
the approxinations used to describe the complexities of these
processes. Consequently the quantitative predictions derived
f rorn the various nodels show considerable variation. However,
over the past several years a clear scientific consensus has
energed regarding the exPected glimatic effects of increased
atmoipheric Co1. The consensus- is that a doubling of atnospheric CO, frofi its pre-industrial revolution value qoulil result
global temperature rise of (3.0 t 1.5)oc. The
in
"n "u"f"gein this figure is a result of the inability of even
uncertainty
the most elaborate models to simulate clinate in a totally realistic nanner. The temperature rise is predicted to be distributed nonuniformly over the earth, with above-average temPerature
elevations in the polar regions and relatively smalL increases
near the equator. There is unanimous agreement in the scientific
community that a temperature increase of this magnitude would
bring about significant changes in the eart.hrs climate' including
rainfall distribution and alterations in the biosphere. The time
+NationaI Research Council Panel Reportt Carbon Dioxide
Climate: A second Assessment, National AEE?emt-Press,
and