future, this is also assumed for the region of SEA (Sugi et al. (2009). We will further see an increase in
storm centered rainfall (Emanuel et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2010).
All in all, the importance of the ENSO phenomenon for the variability of TCs (Emanuel, 2007; Kubota
and Chan, 2009) and precipitation (Jose and Cruz, 1999; Lyon et al., 2006; Yumul et al., 2008; Hilario
et al., 2009; Jaranilla-Sanchez et al., 2011) is large. But according to IPCC, the confidence in projected
changes for the future is low.
All the mentioned impacts of climate change represent a large burden for human livelihood and
natural diversity in the country. Many are directly dependent on agriculture or aquaculture, sectors
themselves strongly dependent on climatic conditions. For agriculture, many burdens are listed in the
literature; droughts, saltwater intrusion, SLR, TCs, temperature increase (in particular nighttime),
precipitation patterns, diseases, insects and land degradation. SLR and saltwater intrusion only play a
minor role, as agriculture in the country does not take place in coastal areas (World Bank, 2013). For
the other stressors, it is not possible to judge which one is the most important. This depends on the
region and the present conditions, i.e. type and variety of crops, distance to flood prone areas, etc.
Droughts have been shown to have a widespread impact on the country’s food supply in the past.
According to the literature, this could be more frequent in the future (Taylor et al., 2012; Sillmann et
al., 2013; Villafuerte et al., 2014) and will also be amplified by population growth. As these burdens
will impact agricultural yields that are already under the above-mentioned pressures, adequate
adaptation measure should be taken. Famines can be buffered with the national or global market.
Therefore, infrastructures and logistics have to be available. Another interesting argument in the
literature is that people had already in the past shown their ability to deal with certain climate
variability but, in combination with more stressors, this could be overextended (Fuentes and
Conception, 2007; IPCC, 2014). They further argue for using this indigenous knowledge for future
adaptation strategies.
As the country with the longest coastline in the world, the impacts related to the ocean are of
particular interest (i.e. sea level rise, typhoons, floods, ocean acidification…). The past and future
developments in these issues have been addressed, but their influence on certain sectors will depend
more on the pure exposure. In that manner, most studies point out that the impacts of climate
change are often strongly interrelated with human activities that lead to a worsening of the
particular problem (e.g. human induced subsidence by groundwater extraction; Rudolfo and Siringan,
2006). Coral reefs provide a meaningful example here. De’ath et al. (2012) showed that the corals are
obviously able to cope with a certain level of pressure from climate change, but only if additional
pressure by human activities is omitted.
Independent of the future changes in cyclone activity, we have to assume a growth in the amount of
damages as more and more people, assets and economic power is situated in exposed areas. Only
adequate infrastructure and adaptation measures can lower their vulnerability (Dodman, 2009). In
particular, the fast growing urban settlements have to tackle that problem. Climate-related burdens
(i.e. UHI, SLR, floods…) can only be solved by meeting the challenges of the non-climatic stressors
(high urbanization rate, migration, informal settlements, lack of important basic living standards…).
Examining the relationship of climate and non-climate pressures reveals levers where adaptation
activities could relieve the burden of climate change. For instance, providing access to clean water
and adequate sanitation (under risk by storm activity and saltwater intrusion) strengthens people’s
30
Select target paragraph3
Connect to a paragraph
Connect to an entity
Disable highlights
Add to table of contents