Chan and Xu (2009) analyzed the numbers of land-falling TCs in some regions in SEA and found that, for the region Vietnam and Philippines, there was no significant trend in the 20th century. They concluded that global warming has not led to higher frequencies of landfalling TCs. The same was found by Kubota and Chan (2009), who based their analysis on a data set from 1902 to 2005. They further stated that the landfalling TCs are related to ENSO and PDO and an oscillation of 10-22 years is apparent in their occurrence rate since 1945. The cyclones that effect SEA, especially the Philippines, originate in the northwestern Pacific, which has the highest frequency of TCs in the world – only some cyclones come from the west – the Bay of Bengal. There is a strong correlation between the intensity of TCs and the ocean temperature (Park et al., 2014). Park et al. (2014) revealed that the warming trend in SSTs is much stronger in the western tropical Pacific than the central or eastern Pacific. They further stated that the threat of intense TCs to East Asia has increased in the last decade. But this could mostly be shown for the northern part of East Asia. For southern parts, the trends have mostly been negative. Further, they stated that there is an enhancement of the Walker circulation evident (it is unclear if this is multidecadal variation or global warming signal), that leads to atmospheric changes that have suppressed the TC development in this region, despite the general SST warming in the eastern Philippine Sea (Park et al., 2014). The very recent study of Villafuerte et al. (2014a) looked for past trends in extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) (e.g. maximum 5-day rainfall or number of consecutive dry days) by analyzing a 60-year dataset (1951-2010) of observed weather in the Philippines. They found a tendency towards dryer conditions for the dry season (JFM) (i.e. increasing trends in maximum length of dry spells [LDS]), which they attributed to the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. In opposite to that finding, they show that in the wet season (JAS), the LDS is decreasing and maximum 5-day rainfall is increasing, so the conditions are becoming wetter (particularly in the Northwest and central Philippines). Chang (2011) also analyzed past extreme precipitation for the whole region of SEA and reported increases in frequency and intensity. Endo et al. (2009) and Yao et al. (2009) applied a detailed analysis of trends in precipitation patterns of SEA using weather station respective gridded precipitation data. Both found increasing trends for the extreme precipitation indices - Endo et al. (2009) for yearly mean values and Yao et al. (2009) for seasonal data. Cinco et al. (2014) found some weather stations (Cotabato, Iloilo, Laoag and Tacloban) that showed significant increasing trends both for frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall events. As mentioned above, the ENSO phenomenon is of great importance for weather related events in the region. Kubota and Chan (2009) verified a correlation between cyclone activity and the ENSO phenomenon, which could probably be traced back to correlation of both effects with the seasurface temperature (Emanuel, 2007). The IPCC (2007) summarizes that, during an EN year, less TCs hit the country, while during a LN year, more TCs occur (in the JAS season this affect is reversed). The allocation of “EN – less TCs” and “LN – more TCs” is even exacerbated in a low phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The seasonal forecast is best for October to March. The ENSO phenomenon also affects the internal variations in the EPIs in the study region. It leads to drier conditions with droughts in the case of an El Niño event (EN) (Jaranilla-Sanchez et al., 2011; Jose and Cruz, 1999) and to significant wetter conditions with excessive rains in case of a La Nina event (LN) (Hilario et al., 2009; Yumul et al., 2008). But the allocation between ENSO and weather 12