CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN RIGHTS (ii) Terrestrial Ecosystems Even under the intermediate emissions scenarios there is a ��high risk” that climate change will cause “abrupt and irreversible regional-scale change in the composition, structure, and function of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems” in this century.10 Many plant and animal species have already moved their ranges and changed their behavior in response to observed climate change over recent decades, but many others will be unable to move quickly enough or otherwise adapt to changing climactic conditions.11 Thus, the IPCC predicts that climate change will “reduce the populations, vigor, and viability” of many species, especially those with spatially restricted populations, and will increase the extinction risk for many species.12 In addition, increased tree death has been observed in many places worldwide, and there is high confidence that this can be attributed to climate change in some regions.13 “Forest dieback” is a major environmental risk, which has potentially significant impacts on climate, biodiversity, water quality, wood production, and livelihoods. The drivers of tree death include high temperatures and drought, and changes in the abundance of insect pests and pathogens (related, in part, to warming).14 Affected rights: right to food, right to an adequate standard of living, right to health. (iii) Coastal Systems and Low-lying Areas The IPCC projects that coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts such as submergence, flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion, primarily due to sea level rise (although increased precipitation and storm surges will also contribute to these impacts). For the two intermediate emissions scenarios, the projected mean sea level rise ranges from .36-.73 meters by 2100, with large regional and local variations.15 There will also likely be an increase in the occurrence of the most severe tropical cyclones.16 Finally, the physical composition of coastal and estuarine ecosystems will be altered by changes in precipitation and river flow, increased water temperatures, and ocean acidification, and this will contribute to a decline in biodiversity and ecosystem productivity along coastlines.17 The projected increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones, exacerbated by sea level rise and the degradation of ecosystems that provide protection from storms and flooding, will pose a direct threat to human lives and coastal settlements. Without adaptation, IPCC AR5 projects with high confidence that “hundreds of millions of people will be affected by coastal flooding and will be displaced due to land loss by year 2100.”18 Coastal communities will also be adversely affected by the more gradual degradation of land, soils, freshwater resources, and coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Affected rights: right to life, right to health, right to housing, right to an adequate standard of living, right to food, right to water, right to property, right to self-determination. (iv) Ocean Systems Climate change is altering the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the ocean; scientists have already observed large-scale distribution shifts of species and altered ecosystem composition as a result of ocean warming (e.g., the distribution of many fish and invertebrates have shifted poleward and/or to deeper, cooler waters).19 The IPCC thus predicts that, in response to further warming by 1°C or more, there will be large, irreversible shifts in the spatial distribution of species and seasonal timing of their activities (feeding, growth, development, behaviors, and productivities), which will have implications for ecosystem goods and services.20 It is likely that the spatial shifts of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 4 Id. at 276. Id. at 274-275. Id. at 275. Id. at 276. Id. Id. at 369. There is not yet consensus on whether climate change will affect the severity of extratropical cyclones. Id. at 368. Id. at 368. Id. at 364. Id. at 414. Id. T H E H U M A N R I G H T S I M P L I C AT I O N S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E