I had the opportunity to conduct research with co-authors from the University
of Oxford, Climate Accountability Institute, and UCS to use a simple climate model
to quantify the contribution of historical (1880–2010) and recent (1980–2010)
emissions traced to these carbon producers to the historical rise in global
atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level (Ekwurzel et al., 2017). We
found that emissions traced to these 90 carbon producers contributed ∼57% of the
observed rise in atmospheric CO2, ∼42–50% of the rise in global mean surface
temperature (GMST), and ∼26–32% of global sea level (GSL) rise over the
historical period and ∼43% (atmospheric CO2), ∼29–35% (GMST), and ∼11–14%
(GSL) since 1980 (based on best-estimate parameters and accounting for uncertainty
arising from the lack of data on aerosol forcings traced to producers). Our study
demonstrates that the proportional increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, GMST,
and GSL—key indicators of human impact on the global environment—from
emissions traced to major carbon producers is quantifiable and substantial. The
analyses presented here could be extended to examine the contribution of emissions
traced to major carbon producers to other impacts.
Attribution science has advanced to now assess the contribution of human-induced
climate change to many types of extreme events (see figure and table, UCS 2018).
Figure source: UCS (2018)
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