Memorandum for the Petitioners | 39 attribution evaluates the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to an observed change or event with an assignment of statistical confidence.”!”? 5.28. As explained by Burger et al., climate change attribution refers to the area of research that links climate change to anthropogenic drivers, or how human activities are affecting the global climate system. Impact attribution, on the other hand, refers to the related but distinct body of research that links climate change to its impacts on the world around us, examining how changes in the global climate system affect other interconnected human and natural systems. Meanwhile, source attribution explores the contribution of various emissions sources -- including different sectors, activities, and entities -- and land use changes to climate change.!3° These types of attribution research look at the mean of the variables rather than the extremes. In contrast, extreme event attribution looks at how human-induced changes in the global climate system are affecting frequency, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events.!3! the C.1. Event attribution 5.29. In his Statement,'? expert witness Dr. Myles Allen, Professor of Geosystem Science in the Environmental Change Institute (School of Geography and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford) and leader of the ECI Global Climate Research Programme, confirmed that “based on the evidence available from current climate models and our understanding of the underlying theory, the probabilities of many potentially damaging extreme weather events, including heatwaves and shortduration extreme precipitation events, increase predictably with rising global temperatures. Hence, this provides a basis for relating harm associated with extreme weather events with attributable changes in global temperature.”3 5.30. Extreme event attribution also looks at fuel tropical cyclones, including typhoons. Climate for tropical cyclones. As stated by Burger et temperatures have warmed in most places, which -allows the most intense storms to strengthen, leading storm impacts. how climate change can change has clear drivers al: “First, sea surface all things being equal -to non-linear increase in Second, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, thus, can lead to heavier rainfall and flooding. Finally, higher sea levels exacerbate coastal flooding and high-water levels during storms.”!34 ? IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, supra note 70. 3° Burger, M., ef al. (05 April 2019), The Law and Science of Climate Change Attribution (Forthcoming, Columbia Journal of Environmental Law), pp. 9-10, available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3051 178, (last accessed on 12 September 2019). 31 Ibid. p.25. '? See Exhibit “PPPPPPPP” to “PPPPPPPP-2,” Statement of Myles Allen, p. 3. 33 Ibid. '% Burger, M., ef al., supra note 130, pp. 37-40.