Memorandum for the Petitioners | 76 forests) are relatively unable to relocate, they are projected to experience high rates of mortality and loss. The IPCC SR 1.5 warns that the majority (70— 90%) of warm water (tropical) coral reefs that exist today will disappear even if global warming is constrained to 1.5°C (very high confidence*!*), and 99% of all corals will disappear at 2°C.3! 8.10. Warming ocean temperatures, and declining pH and carbonate ion concentrations in ocean acidification, represent risks to the productivity of fisheries and aquaculture, and the security of regional livelihoods, as stated in IPCC AR5° 8.11. The Philippines could be one of the most severely affected by these impacts, as it has 18,000 kilometers of shoreline**! and approximately one million reef fishers (without counting aquaculture)>” The Philippines also has 26,000 km? of coral reefs, which is a large share of the coral reef area of the coral triangle (96,000 km”). Although only occupying a small share of world’s oceans, they play a crucial role for biodiversity by providing habitat for a significant proportion of marine life— creating highly productive ecosystems in relatively low nutrient water regions.°”? 8.12. Loss of coral cover typically result in the decline of smallerbodied coral-associated fishes that are dependent on the structure of reef habitat for shelter.*** If the small fish disappear, the number of bigger fishes will also diminish, causing dramatic changes in species distribution.*” 8.13. Warming oceans and ocean acidification threaten human food security and the tourism industry, as confirmed by the IPCC SR 1.5: Small-scale fisheries in tropical regions, which are very dependent on habitat provided by coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass and kelp forests, are expected to face growing risks at 1.5°C of warming because 318 Discussion of terms “confidence” and “likelihood,” supra note 116. 319 IPCC SR 1.5, available at https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (last accessed on 12 September 2019), Technical Summary, p. 38. 320 IPCC, WGIIL, AR 5 Chapter 30: The Ocean, supra note 309, p. 1658. 321 One Ocean, Managing Philippine Coasts and Seas: Understanding the Challenge, available at http://oneocean.org/flash/the_philippine_seas.html (last accessed on 12 September 2019). 322 Teh, L., ef al. (19 June 2013), A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers. PLOS ONE 8(6): e65397. https://doi.org/ 10.137 1/journal.pone.0065397, at Table 3, available at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/citation?id=10.137 1/journal.pone.0065397 (last accessed on 12 September 2019). 323 Exhibit “L” to “L-38,” Literature Review of Studies Related to Climate Change Impacts in the Philippines, p. 23. 324 Exhibit “FF” to “FF-7,” Printed Power Point presentation of Maria Lourdes San Diego-McGlone, PhD; Laura David, PhD; and Porfirio Alifio, PhD, entitled “How Increased CO2 Affects the Oceans,” slide 9. 325 David, L., supra note 313, p. 137; See also Cheung, W., ef al. (2010), Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology, 16[1], pp. 24-35, available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x (last accessed on 12 September 2019).