media, membership in trade associations and direct funding and contact with regulators. Further details of these activities and our methodology are provided in the Appendix. Lobbying and Carbon Budgets The IPCC’s groundbreaking 2018 report states that limiting warming to 1.5o C would require a “rapid escalation in the scale and pace of transition” of energy systems, “particularly in the next 10-20 years”, including in renewable energy and electric transport. It further notes such an unprecedented transition would necessarily require “public sector interventions” – i.e. policy responses around the world. 1 One key implication of these IPCC findings is the probable decline in oil’s share of global energy supply should 1.5o C be achieved under most scenarios. The same applies for natural gas without widespread deployment of CCS, and this only if deep reductions in methane emissions can be achieved. Despite this, and spurred on by deregulation and rising oil prices, the US oil and gas sector achieved record high production and proved reserves in 2018 . Projected forward to 2050, research shows these operations alone will produce greenhouse gas emissions resulting in the 1.5o C global warming targets becoming nearly impossible under most IPCC noted scenarios.2 Similarly, potential emissions from Western Australian’s gas reserves would use Australia’s Paris carbon budget three times over3, whilst lobbying to weaken and delay methane regulations in Canada will lead to an extra 55 million tonnes of GHGs in the atmosphere before 2023.4 InfluenceMap’s 2017 Carbon Policy Footprint research found the five oil majors have a disproportionate (relative to their economic size) and profoundly negative impact on climate policy 1 2 3 4 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, Frequently Asked Questions, IPCC, October 2018 Drilling Towards Disaster, Why U.S Oil and Gas Expansion Is incompatible with Climate Limits, Oil Change International, January 2019 Western Australia's Gas Gamble - Implications of natural gas extraction in WA. Climate Analytics, March 2018 Canada’s Oil and Gas Challenge, Environmental Defence & Stand.Earth, December 2018 6 InfluenceMap March 2019