Figure 1: Natural Greenhouse Effect v. Human Enhanced Greenhouse Effect48 Source: Will Elder, National Park Service As an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is under severe threat of climate change. The country’s inhabitants, nature, and infrastructure are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of the changing climate and the associated weather extremes (e.g. tropical cyclones) and other natural hazards.49 Of particular importance to the Petitioners is increased storm intensity in light of the recent devastating typhoons. While the annual frequency of tropical cyclones is generally projected to decrease or remain essentially unchanged in the next century in most regions although the confidence in the projections is lower in specified regions than global projections global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates are likely to increase.50 For a summary of past research on vulnerabilities and an overview of existing literature on climate change impacts in the Philippines authored by an independent researcher, see Annex “F”. Petitioners from Alabat Island, Quezon Province, have provided personal statements describing how some of the climate change impacts affected the rights of Filipinos. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 48 U.S. National Park Service, What is Climate Change, http://www.nps.gov/grba/learn/nature/what-is-climatechange.htm (last accessed September 15, 2015). 49 K. Emanuel, Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years, 436 NATURE, 686 (2005); H. Ueda & E.M. Hori, E. M. (2006). Two Causes of the 2004 Hot Summer in East Asia, 79(12) GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW OF JAPAN, 715 (2006); K. Méheux & D. Dominey-Howes & K. Lloyd, Natural Hazard Impacts in Small Island Developing States: A Review of Current Knowledge and Future Research Needs, 40(2) NATURAL HAZARDS, 429 (2007); A.A. Yusuf & H. Francisco, Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia, 181(December) EAST, 1–19 (2009). 50 Christensen, J.H., K. Krishna Kumar, E. Aldrian, S.-I. An, I.F.A. Cavalcanti, M. de Castro, W. Dong, P. Goswami, A. Hall, J.K. Kanyanga, A. Kitoh, J. Kossin, N.-C. Lau, J. Renwick, D.B. Stephenson, S.-P. Xie and T. Zhou, 2013: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; W. Mei, S.-P. Xie, F. Primeau, J. C. McWilliams, C. Pasquero, Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures. Sci. Adv. 1, e1500014 (2015). ! 22! ! ! ! ! !