been observed in many regions globally, will have potentially significant impacts on climate,
biodiversity, water quality, wood production, and livelihoods.143 The composition of coastal and
estuarine ecosystems will be altered by sea level rise, changes in precipitation and river flow,
increased water temperatures, and ocean acidification, and this will contribute to a decline in
biodiversity and ecosystem productivity along coastlines. 144 Climate change is already altering
the physical, chemical, and biological properties of marine ecosystems, with the shift in
distribution of many fish and invertebrates poleward and/or toward deeper, cooler waters,
carrying serious implications for marine productivity and food security in tropical areas. 145
Effects on Buildings, Infrastructure, and Services: Climate change “will have profound
impacts on a broad spectrum of city functions, infrastructures, and services and will interact with
and may exacerbate many existing stresses.” 146 For example, extreme weather events and sea
level rise will damage and destroy buildings and infrastructure, particularly on coastlines. Rising
temperatures and heavy precipitation will adversely affect critical transportation, water, and
electric infrastructure in many areas. Decreases in precipitation and freshwater resources will
pose a major challenge for the management of water supply, irrigation systems, and
hydroelectric dams.
Expanding Disease Vectors: Increases in heavy rain and temperature will increase the
risk of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue, in many parts of the world. 147
B.
Peer-reviewed findings of impacts above 1°C of warming (Our
Children’s Trust, Hansen)
The best climate science indicates that, to protect the earth’s systems, the long-term
increase in the average global surface temperature of the Earth above preindustrial temperatures
must stay below 1°C.148 The best climate science further indicates that allowing global average
surface temperatures to approach 2°C for any length of time would be highly dangerous. 149 Peerreviewed research shows that populations around the world are already experiencing significant
and varied impacts from the 1°C warming that has occurred. 150 These impacts constitute
143
Id. at 275-76.
Id. at 368.
145
Id. at 414-15.
146
IPCC WGII, supra note 75, at 556.
147
Id. at 725-26.
148
Given the long-term effects of CO2 in the atmosphere, past emissions may result in a 1.5°C peak in global surface
heating for a period; however, emissions must be reduced to ensure that long-term temperatures, after peaking,
eventually stabilize at no more than 1°C above preindustrial levels. To stabilize at 1°C requires a mean atmospheric
concentration of CO2 of no more than 350 ppm. See Our Children’s Trust brief, at p. 2, n. 2.
149
James Hansen et al., Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to
Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature, 8(12) PLOS ONE 81648, 15 [hereinafter Assessing
“Dangerous Climate Change”] (noting that a 2°C increase would result in an “unacceptably high risk of global
catastrophe”); Our Children’s Trust brief, Exhibit A, Declaration of Dr. James E. Hansen in Support of Our
Children’s Trust et al.’s Submission to the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child Regarding State Obligations,
Children’s Rights and Climate Change (Aug. 19, 2016) [hereinafter Our Children’s Trust brief, Exhibit A (Hansen
Declaration)]; Our Children’s Trust brief, Exhibit B.
150
For a list of global impacts felt in 2015, see, e.g., WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION, WMO STATEMENT
ON THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2015, WMO No. 1167, 11-20 (2016),
http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/news/News/201603/P020160322334697539255.pdf [hereinafter WMO STATUS
144
34
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