Figure 15 shows the expected results in adopting some of the policy options at current values of rainfall. For instance, increasing farm to market road expenditure by 20 percent might likely lead to a 0.05 percent reduction in vulnerability. On the other hand, subsidizing 30 percent of fertilizer cost might likely lead to about 1.25 percentage point reduction in vulnerability. Similarly, investing in human capital also reduces vulnerability. Enabling farming households’ heads finish at least high school level might reduce the actual vulnerability on the average. Furthermore, providing enhanced agricultural facilities or infrastructure can lead to reduced vulnerability. Having a thresher has the highest impact on vulnerability reduction followed by irrigation pump, dryer and having agricultural organization. Figure 15. Providing more agricultural infrastructure and enhancing educationat current value of rainfall, CBMS 2007-2010 Agri Assets Education of the head 5.60% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% Vulnerability Vulnerability 5.40% 5.20% 5.00% 4.80% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 4.60% 1.00% 4.40% 0.00% Actual Agri org Dryer Irrigation pump Thresher Actual No grade Elem level Elem HS level HS Grad Coll grad level Coll grad Source of basic: Pooled CBMS 2007-2010 Census 6. Conclusions and recommendations Although having different datasets at different points in time, the study reveals that change in climate variables likely transmit its effects on the households through farming income in the form of food insecurity. The effects have been shown to be statistically significant to effect change in farming income together with other factors that are available such as government expenditure on agriculture, farm inputs, and infrastructure. Farming income then tends to significantly affect vulnerability to food insecurity given other idiosyncratic factors of the households such as education, demography, access to infrastructure and housing. Hence, images of food insecurity can be depicted using the structural models established in this study. Rainfall levels and stability and extreme temperatures affect crop farming consistently across models. Extreme increase in level of rainfall decreases income from crop farming and gardening and consequently increases vulnerability to food insecurity. Higher temperatures, albeit having opposite effects with respect to minimum and maximum, tend to eventually decrease farming income and will likely effect increse in vulnerability to food insecurity. This means that temperature must not be too cold (too low minimum temperature) and must not be too hot (too high maximum temperature). This explains that at the national level, changes in temperature lead to increased vulnerability to food insecurity which is also true in some of the provinces. However, changes in level of rainfall will increase vulnerability in some parts of the country. CBMS-FAO | 48