As mentioned earlier, change in rainfall affects crop farming income positively which ultimately reduces
vulnerability to malnutrition vulnerability. For instance, for every percent change in the -10 to 0 percent
range, income crop farming increases by approximately 3 percent. This in turn affects drops on
vulnerability to food insecurity in terms of malnutrition. To demonstrate, figure 12 shows an approximate
plot of change in rainfall in the -10 to 10 percent range and its effect on food insecurity. From -10 to 0
percent, a percent difference effects a 0.001 drop in vulnerability while from 0 to 10 percent, vulnerability
drops approximately by 0.0003.
Figure 12. Effect of -10 to 10 percent change in rainfall on vulnerability, CBMS 2007-2010
Change in rainfall seasonality
Every range of seasonality have positive effect on crop farming income except in the -10 to 0 percent range.
They, however, have different in magnitude and statistical significance. From -100 to -20 percent, a percent
change translates to about .3 percent increase in crop farming income while from -20 to -10 percent, a
percent change effects about 2 percent increase in crop farming income.
Change in rainfall volatility
Almost similar to seasonality, ranges of change in rainfall volatility has consistent positive effects on crop
farming income. From -100 to -10 percent, a percent change translates to about 2 percent increase in crop
farming income. From -10 to 0 percent as well as 20-100 percent change effects about 1 percent change in
crop farming income.
Change in temperature
Minimum and maximum temperature have, expectedly, opposite effects on crop farming income and
consequently on vulnerability. If the change in minimum temperature is higher by one degree, log of crop
farming income also increases by 0.64. On higher changes in temperatures (0 degrees above), the increase
in crop farming income is less by 0.33. In terms of vulnerability, if the change is higher by one degree,
CBMS-FAO | 40
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