Amicus Curiae Brief presented by
ClientEarth
21 November 2016
assessment more than satisfies the civil standard of proof, and thus, the Commission
may rely on this statement for its factual investigation. Accordingly, the Commission
may take it as proven, for the purposes of its investigation, that human greenhouse
gas emissions have caused half of the observed warming of the planet from 1951 to
2010.67
83. A fundamental conclusion of the IPCC's AR5 is that there is a clear and
demonstrable linear causal relationship between the emission of carbon dioxide and
warming of the planet as a whole. SPM 2.1 of the IPCC states:
"[c]umulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming
by the late21st century and beyond. Projections of greenhouse gas emissions
vary over a wide range, depending on both socio-economic development and
climate policy."68
84. Two graphs demonstrating this linear relationship, based on observations to date,
and on the basis of modelling into the future, are contained on page 9 of the AR5.
This page is included as Annex C to this brief due to its fundamental importance to
the Commission's investigation.
85. Furthermore, the scientific evidence is clear that greenhouse gas emissions are
inherently fungible. That is, emissions are mutually interchangeable in their
environmental impact and their effect in the atmosphere, because it is the overall
Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties, 2010 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf
67
The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C 2
over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist. IPCC AR5, Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. See
note 46 at p 4.
68
IPCC AR5, Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. See note 46 at p 8.
42
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