Amicus Curiae Brief presented by
ClientEarth
21 November 2016
been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."64
[Emphasis in original].
81. The detection and attribution report (Chapter 10) states that:
"[m]ore than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature
(GMST) from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic
increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The consistency of observed
and modeled changes across the climate system, including warming of the
atmosphere and ocean, sea level rise, ocean acidification and changes in the
water cycle, the cryosphere and climate extremes points to a large-scale warming
resulting primarily from anthropogenic increases in GHG concentrations. Solar
forcing is the only known natural forcing acting to warm the climate over this
period but it has increased much less than GHG forcing, and the observed
pattern of long-term tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is not
consistent with the expected response to solar irradiance variations. The Atlantic
Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) could be a confounding influence but studies that
find a significant role for the AMO show that this does not project strongly onto
1951–2010 temperature trends." 65 [Emphasis Added]
82. As previously explained, ‘very likely’ is used by the IPCC to indicate that a result is
90–100% certain in terms of scientific proof, indicating a clear and rigorously proven
causal relationship between two physical phenomena. 66 This indicates that the
64
IPCC AR5, Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. See note 46 at p 4.
IPCC AR5, Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. See note 46 at p 869.
66
IPCC, Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on
65
41
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