4 Introduction
The burning of fossil fuels and large scale land use changes in the last 150 years are majorly
responsible for emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases. The resulting change in the composition
of the atmosphere has had a strong influence on the climate system. Since the beginning of
industrialization (e.g. IPCC, 2013), carbon dioxide has increased from 270 parts per million (ppm) to
396 ppm (2013) – a level that is unprecedented for at least the last 800.000 years (IPCC, 2013). The
intensified greenhouse effect traps more energy in earth’s atmosphere, which, beside other effects,
leads to global warming. The observed warming in the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC, 2013)
and so far the global mean of Earth’s atmospheric near surface temperature has warmed up by
roughly 0.8 degrees. The year 2016 was reported to be the warmest year in reported weather
records since 1880 (NOAA, NASA, 2016).
Besides a further temperature increase, the scientific community expects an ongoing increase in sea
level rise (SLR), changes in precipitation (both in amounts and patterns) and changes in occurrence
rates of extreme weather events (EWEs) (e.g. heat waves, heavy rain events, tropical storms…). A
challenge in understanding climate change and measuring the ongoing changes in climate variables
(e.g. temperature and precipitation) is the awareness of natural climate variability and how it affects
natural weather events.
It is important to take into account that climate change and the corresponding natural and
socioeconomic impacts will not happen homogeneously in the different regions of the world. Some
regions may face an increase in precipitation (i.e. higher northern latitudes). For others, scientists
anticipate a decrease (southern Europe, Middle East). As already ongoing climate change becomes
more obvious, discussions about the issue will increase as it saturates into institutions, society and
efforts to tackle the problems. Besides trying to mitigate (lower carbon emissions to decrease
upcoming climate change), there is recognition that adaptation to climate change is also necessary.
One central aim of climate science is the provision of information regarding the climate of the future.
To obtain this information, so-called General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used. GCMs are
numerical models, which aim to represent the physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean,
cryosphere and land surface. They are used to simulate the response of the climate system to
growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. To model the future climate, the
input of the greenhouse gas concentrations of the future is necessary. But these concentrations
completely depend on human behavior, technical advancements, and political decisions in the near
future. Since this is not possible to forecast, climate science uses so-called scenarios for greenhouse
gas concentration in the atmosphere of the future. These scenarios are indirect scenarios for the
development of human society.
In the third and fourth assessment report of the IPCC, so-called SRES scenarios (Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios) of future emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the
atmosphere were used as a basis for global climate models. In the latest report (AR5), this changed
to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which directly are keyed to a range of
trajectories of GHG concentrations and climate forcing. They are labeled by their approximate
radiative forcing that is reached during or near the end of the 21st century (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0,
and RCP8.5) (Burkett, 2014). The RCP2.6 scenario represents a very optimistic scenario with low
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