Submission in Support of Petitioners Case No. CHR-NI-2016-0001 Filipinos.24 These impacts could be even more pervasive in light of the most recent sea level rise estimates for the Philippines.25 4. Tropical Storms Climate change will likely cause an increase in both the wind speed and rain rates of tropical cyclones, resulting in a higher frequency of more severe tropical storms.26 The effects of these tropical storms on coastal settlements and ecosystems will be exacerbated by sea level rise.27 Projected increases in extreme rainfall, particularly during the monsoon season, can also compound the negative effects of tropical storms.28 These impacts pose a significant threat to the Philippines due to its location (in the path of many tropical cyclones), the large number of islands and roughly 36,000 km of coastline, and the large number of people who live near the coastline. There has already been an observed increase in the number of severe tropical cyclones in the Philippines.29 As noted above, five of the ten deadliest typhoons to hit the country since 1947 occurred in the past decade, killing tens of thousands of people and causing extensive economic and physical damages. The most devastating was Typhoon Haiyan, which claimed more than 7,000 lives and displaced more than four million people.30 Scientists have determined that Typhoon Haiyan was the strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history and that a combination of climate change-related factors (sea level rise and warmer ocean 24 International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Parts of Philippines May Submerge Due to Global Warming, SCIENCE DAILY, June 6, 2016; Aya Lowe, Rapid Rise in Sea Levels Makes Philippine More Vulnerable to Natural Disasters, CHANNEL NEWS ASIA, May 28, 2015, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/rapid-rise-in-sea-levels/1877242.html. 25 The impacts of sea level rise will be exacerbated by physical, social, and economic vulnerabilities in the Philippines. See S. Dasgupta et al., Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges: A Comparative Analysis of Impacts in Developing Countries, Policy Research Working Paper 4901 (World Bank 2009). 26 IPCC WGI (2013), supra note 22, at 107. There is less consensus on predictions of how climate change will affect extra-tropical cyclones, but some studies have found that climate change will likely increase precipitation levels and wind speed for these cyclones as well. See, e.g., Lennart Bengtsson et al., Will Extra-Tropical Storms Intensity in a Warmer Climate? 22 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2276 (2009). 27 WMO (2013), supra note 2. 28 Graciano Yumul Jr. et al., Tropical Cyclone-Southwest Monsoon Interaction and the 2008 Floods and Landslides in Panay Island, Central Philippines: Meteorological and Geological Factors, 62(3) NATURAL HAZARDS 827 (2012). 29 PAGASA (2011), supra note 10, at 17; A. Yusuf & H. Francisco (2010), supra note 18; Thelma Cinco et al., Observed Trends and Impacts of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines, 36(14) INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 4638 (2016). 30 ANGELA SHERWOOD ET AL., RESOLVING POST-DISASTER DISPLACEMENT: INSIGHTS FROM THE PHILIPPINES AFTER TYPHOON HAIYAN, 1 (Brookings Institution & IOM 2014). Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School 8