C ference D ec'arat oIII I "Experience tells us that climate can kill. It has wasted the lives of tens of thousands in the Sahel through a decade of drought. William Mansfield United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya - For thousands of years prior to the industrial revolution, the concentration of "greenhouse gases", such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide was relatively constant and maintained the earth at a fairly stable temperature. However, as the world's population increased and became more industrialized, the abundance of these gases increased markedly. Scientific data indicate that increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases will raise the global temperature, and may have already begun to do so. This is due to their ability to trap heat radiating from the earth acting as a layer, much like the glass of a greenhouse, which prevents heat from escaping while allowing continued solar radiation. This change in the earth's atmosphere is occurring at a time when many of the world's life-support systems are already stressed by population growth, industrial pollution, increasing intensity of agricultural land use and the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources. Global warming will induce changes in precipitation and wind patterns, changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, ecosystem stress and species loss, reduced availability of fresh water, and a rising global mean sea-level. It is clear that the African continent will experience the direct impact of such climate changes. There is broad consensus among scientists that the warming will proceed rapidly and present a serious threat to the human race. International concern is increasing and greenhouse gas-induced climatic change has been the subject of several recent international conferences, including in Toronto (June 1988), New Delhi (February 1989), the Noordwijk Ministerial Conference (November 1989), Cairo (December 1989). These conferences have all produced clear and detailed statements calling for early action to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by reducing fossil fuel use and by improving forest management. Their goal was to reduce the rate of climatic change in the next decade to a rate similar to those experienced over recent centuries. All of these discussions of both effects and corrective actions have recognized the special interests of the developing nations. In November 1988, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess present scientific knowledge, socio-economic impacts, and options for policy responses by the world's nations. The UN General Assembly in December 1988 adopted a resolution calling for the preservation of global climate as part of the common heritage of humankind. It also adopted a resolution convening a UN Conference on Environment and Development in 1992. Preparatory work has begun and the first substantive meeting will be held in Nairobi in August 1990. The purpose of the 1992 conference is to put in place a coherent international programme of action for a complete integration of environmental and developmental issues. In 1989 the UN General Assembly called upon WMO and UNEP to prepare for the negotiation of a global framework convention on climate, using the first assessment report of IPCC due in August 1990. The Second World Climate Conference in November 1990 will provide a major opportunity for international follow-up to the IPCC report at technical and political levels, to lead to opening formal negotiations on a convention before the end of 1990. Specialists and policy analysts from African countries have participated in the work of IPCC, and all nations will need to develop policy positions as the formal negotiation of a global convention on climate change proceeds. Global climatic change is fundamentally different from the conventional environmental agenda where the practice has been to react and correct. The challenge now is to anticipate and prevent. Climatic change has the potential to have an impact on ecological, economic, and political systems which can only be called catastrophic. These changes, once started, would be irreversible within a timescale of social, 2