Economic Vulnerability countries are more vulnerable than the industrialized countries to the ef2 Implications African fects of climatic change for two main reasons. First, the current economic and crises have weakened the capacity of many countries to adjust to drastic for Africa ecological economic and ecological changes. Second, the majority of the people still depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Agricultural production depends a great deal on ] climatic patterns Global warming is occurring at a time when many of Africa's economic and lifesupport systems are under stress from a number of internal and external pressures. Most of the continent has experienced poor economic performance over the last three decades. Sub-Saharan Africa is as poor today as it was 30 years ago. Africa's worsening economic crisis has been characterised by low agricultural growth, declining industrial output, poor export performance, rising debt and increasing environmental degradation. These internal and external factors have made the African economies more vulnerable to market and ecological fluctuations. Instability in international markets has made it difficult for these countries to diversify their economies and reduce "The possible relocation of re- their dependence on the export of a narrow range of products. Africa's long-term sources . . across national debt has risen considerably since 1970 and it is now almost equal to the region's borders may.. increase inse- gross national product (GNP). curity and thus undermine the In many African countries public expenditure on social services is dropping, current efforts to bring peace school enrollment is declining, infant mortality is rising, nutrition standards are and stability to the [African] worsening, and road networks are in a state of disrepair. Unemployment is on the continent." rise in various countries and population pressure is threatening natural resources. Environmental degradation has become a symptom of the deepening economic and riesluent Daniel arap Moi ecological crises. The lack of adequate financial resources is also leading to instituRepublic of Kenya tional decay. The vulnerability of Africa as a region may mask the vulnerability of certain social groups within the countries. The very poor in these countries are more likely to suffer most from the economic effects of climatic change. Furthermore, the situation of currently vulnerable social groups such women and children is likely to worsen as a result of the economic and ecological effects of climatic change. If present trends continue, the economic effects of climatic change could result in the re-distribution of productive resources which could in turn influence the distribution of power and income. Such changes could have far-reaching political implications. Despite the seeming despair, there are governments, non-governmental organizations and international institutions seeking alternative ways to promote economic renewal in Africa. Alternative economic policies are being tried out in numerous countries and governments are introducing a wide range of measures aimed at stemming the decline. However, some of the economic policies being introduced in Africa are contributing indirectly to environmental degradation. Some countries under pressure to in- I . . - ........ "The high-diversity, mid-rainfall zones, where Africa's most important parks are are located will be particularly vulnerable to any climatic change." —David Western Wildlife Conservation International, Nairobi, Kenya 'a,. 7 .. '-• - - . .,