Climatic Change ƒFig. 1 Atmospheric CO2 (ppm), atmospheric methane CH4 (ppb), radiative forcing (W/m2), global mean surface temperature (°C), and global sea level (cm) change after removing annual emissions traced to 90 major industrial carbon producers starting in 1880 (a, c, e, g, i) or 1980 (b, d, f, h, j). Model simulations were implemented with the best estimate parameters and full historical forcing. Consult ESM for results of sensitivity tests for each carbon producer Removing the annual emissions traced to 90 major carbon producers from the best estimate full historical forcing case shows that the combustion of their products from 1880 to 2010 led to a 0.4 (±0.01) °C increase in GMST, 50 (±1.1)% of the total increased temperature over this period (ESM). About two-thirds of this is due to major carbon-producer traced emissions of recent origin. Combustion of their products between 1980 and 2010 led to a 0.28 (±0.01) °C increase, 35.1 (±0.7)% of total GMST increase between 1880 and 2010. Removing all fossil fuel aerosols decreases the proportional contribution of fossil fuel emissions traced to major Fig. 2 Contribution of historical period, 1880–2010 (a, c, e), and recent 1980–2010 (b, d, f) emissions traced to top 20 investor-owned and majority state-owned industrial carbon producers to atmospheric CO2, GMST, and GSL rise from 1880 to 2010. Bar values are the median best estimate full historical forcing model simulations with the error bars showing the first and 90th removal order of each carbon producer (ESM)