Climatic Change
the global climate impact of major carbon producer-traced emissions with regard to global
mean surface temperature. Global sea level rise response to climate forcing operates on slower
times scales, so emissions from 1980 to 2010 have less of a relative contribution for GSL
compared with GMST.
Further research might inform assessments of responsibility for the costs of adaptation for
future climate change by considering the legacy consequences of historical emissions on global
climate. The warming effect of CO2 emissions is largely realized within a decade after release but
persists for centuries to millennia. Other impact-relevant effects, such as sea level rise, will not be
fully manifested for a century or longer after emissions (Joos et al. 2013; Ricke and Caldeira
2014; Strauss et al. 2015). In short, calculating only the historical contribution underestimates the
total contribution (i.e. historical plus the legacy going forward plus any additional warming
associated with the near-immediate removal of the partial offset by aerosols).
As a first approximation, one can estimate the impact of historical emissions traced to major
carbon producers on near-term future sea-level rise by assuming that no major volcanic eruptions
occur and recent historical emissions drive constant rates of sea-level rise for several decades (Joos
et al. 2013). Projecting the best estimate full forcing reference case for the average annual rate of
sea level rise over 2000–2010 of ∼0.43 cm/year would mean another ∼17 cm above 2010 level by
2040. Without the 90 carbon producers, sea level would rise ∼5.7 cm above 2010 level by 2040.
Our study demonstrates that the proportional increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide,
GMST, and GSL—key indicators of human impact on the global environment—from emissions traced to major carbon producers is quantifiable and substantial. The analyses presented
here could be extended to examine the contribution of emissions traced to major carbon
producers to other impacts, such as historical increases in ocean acidification (Ekstrom et al.
2015) or the mortality impacts from extreme heat and other extreme events (Otto et al. 2012;
Mote et al. 2015; Mera et al. 2015; Mitchell et al. 2016).
Size of contribution, such as calculated in this study, is one factor to consider in assessing
responsibility for climate change consequences associated with atmospheric CO2 and CH4,
radiative forcing, GMST, and GSL. Other factors include consideration of differences among
carbon producers in how they responded to the scientific evidence of the climate risks of their
products (Frumhoff et al. 2015). These factors coupled with ethical, legal, and historical
considerations may further inform discussions about carbon producer responsibilities to contribute to limiting climate change through investment in mitigation, support for adaptation, and
compensation for climate damages.
Acknowledgements Richard Millar contributed to the nonlinear equation development. We thank Steven J.
Davis, Aaron Huertas, Michael MacCracken, H. Damon Matthews, David E. Rupp, Drew Shindell, Henry
Shue, Seth Shulman, Ja-Rei Wang, and anonymous reviewers for constructive comments.
Compliance with ethical standards
Funding Support for this study was provided by the Energy Foundation, Fresh Sound Foundation, Grantham
Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, Mertz Gilmore Foundation, V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation,
Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and Wallace Global Fund.
Author attribution B.E. wrote the paper, co-designed the research, conducted model simulations, and generated figures and tables. J.B. changed the model to incorporate the nonlinear response equation and the semiempirical global sea-level rise equations. M.W.D. extended the model to incorporate the annual emissions traced
to major industrial carbon producers and updated model functionality. R.H. provided the CO2 and CH4 data for
emissions traced to major carbon producers and improved the manuscript. RJ.M. modified the carbon producers