an increasing trend in both seasonal and annual total rainfall during 1951–1992, whereas Cruz et al. (2012), who used rainfall data from 1961–2010, showed a drying trend over the same region, but as already stated in Cruz et al. (2012), the results were achieved using different data sets. As later mentioned, the ENSO phenomenon has a strong impact on precipitation patterns. Lyon and Camargo (2008) showed an above (below) average rainfall typically occurring in this area in boreal Summer of El Niño (La Niña) events. In the subsequent fall, rainfall anomalies of the opposite sign develop across the country. Endo et al. (2009) made a comprehensive study on the entire network of weather stations in SEA. For the average values of precipitation, they found the number of wet days (days with precipitation ≥ 1 mm) decreasing in SEA, while the average intensity per wet day increases (Figure 3, left). Figure 3 (right) and further graphs in Endo and Matsumoto (2010) confirm a comparable development for the Philippines - less wet days, mostly higher intensities and changes in extreme precipitation (we will refer to later). Another comprehensive study was done by Yao et al. (2009). They used gridded observational data from 1978 to 2006. By analyzing the seasonal trends for total precipitation, they found for most areas of the Philippines an increase, although clear statements for significance could not be found. Figure 3: Fraction of weather stations with a significant trend over SEA (left) and the stations in SEA and their type of trend for number of wet days (right). (Red and blue bars indicate decreasing respective increasing trends (stronger color means higher significance); red (blue) circles indicate increasing (decreasing) trends). To the influence of the ENSO mechanism, which is in detail described in Warren (2013), Villafuerte et al. (2014) delivered the insight that the seasonal total precipitation in the Philippines is influenced in the following way. The wet season JAS tends to be wetter during an El Niño event and drier during a La Niña event, while an exactly opposite behavior occurs during OND (Lyon et al., 2006). The acronym ENSO refers to El Niño Southern Oscillation and is a phenomenon originated in the Pacific Ocean. The two states El Niño and La Niña describe patterns of above and below SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific. The whole phenomenon is the most important source of rainfall variability in the Philippines (all from Hilario et al., 2009). Slow-onset changes in the future Temperature projections calculated with CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models show for the summer season in South East Asia (SEA) an increase by 4.5°C (model range 3.5°C 9