to 6°C) with the RCP8.5 GHG-pathways. This is lower than the global-mean warming as the region is strongly influenced by sea surface temperatures (SST), which increases with a smaller rate (World Bank, 2013a). However, in comparison to the local year-to-year natural variability, the assumed temperature increase is very large. So for most land areas in South East Asia (SEA), monthly shift in temperature taken from the RCP8.5 scenarios is more than six standard deviations of the past temperature distribution (World Bank, 2013a). Projecting future precipitation is a challenge, as the monsoon in SEA is affected by the Asian and the Australian summer monsoon (Hung et al., 2004) and the GCMs manage to reproduce the precipitation pattern, but the differences between the models are large (World Bank, 2013a). Jourdain et al. (2013) used CMIP5 model projections, which could reproduce the present day patterns, but also showed no multi model agreement over SEA. The projected monsoon rainfall for SEA ranged from 5% decrease up to 10% increase in the RCP8.5 scenarios. Annual mean precipitation is projected to slightly increase (+20% in the dry period DJF) by the CMIP5 models for the Philippines (RCP8.5) (World Bank, 2013a). The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR, 1999) published numbers of an increase in precipitation in the Central Visayas and Southern Tagalog provinces, including Metro Manila, with values of 60 to 100% increase. In general, the statement often can be found that the dry period gets drier and the wet period of the year wetter (e.g. World Bank, 2010; Cinco et al., 2013). The World Bank (2013a) stated that the local SLR (SLR is not distributed evenly across the globe; more in Perrette et al., 2013) will be 10-15% greater in the study region compared to global mean by the end of the 21st century. It is projected to reach 100 cm under a strong 4°C warming (resp. 75 cm under a weaker 2°C warming scenario) by 2090 (World Bank, 2013a). Of great importance in the discussion about rising sea level is the possibility of local land subsidence, which could happen due to human activities or natural factors and could very much increase the burden of SLR. A natural factor could be that, in deltaic regions, weight is accumulated, which can lead to land subsidence. Anthropogenic factors that contribute to land subsidence are drainage and groundwater extraction (Ferguson and Gleeson, 2012). Groundwater extraction itself is strongly connected to the problem of saltwater intrusion. Changes in precipitation and temperature, together with land use change, can alter the groundwater recharge rate and increase saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. Ranjan et al. (2009) analyzed groundwater recharge and classified the Philippines as a region with increase in recharge rate and an overall less to moderate vulnerability to coastal fresh groundwater. The result is weakened by the fact that they only used a SLR of 40cm above 2000 until 2100, which is far below the above mentioned actual predictions (World Bank, 2013). On a local scale, Insigne and Kim (2010) analyzed the issue of saltwater intrusion due to groundwater extraction in the region of Manila. They stated that areas that extract a large volume of groundwater will be severely affected by saltwater intrusion. According to the IPCC (2014), there is a high confidence that the ENSO phenomenon will remain important for inter-annual variability in the region in the future. It is assumed that ENSO related precipitation variability will intensify. The overall confidence in projected changes in ENSO in the 21st century remains low. 10