The World Bank (2013) analyzed the impacts on the rural livelihoods in deltaic and coastal regions and argued that these regions are already very vulnerable to coastal flooding and TCs. This will be exacerbated by saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion, in particular, as the rural population is strongly dependent on agriculture and aquaculture, which will be affected by the changing climate. Other publications focus more on the impact of climate change in the urban environment, the regions that already have to deal with manifold non-climate related pressures. In general, the level of urbanization in the Philippines is strongly increasing. Tran et al. (2012) published the following urbanization rates for the country: 27% in 1950, 33% in 1970, 43% in 1990, 51% in 2000 and a projected level of 66% for 2025. The share of population living in the urban areas is strongly growing. For Manila, the UN assumes a population growth from 11.6 million (2010) to 14 million in 2025 (World Bank, 2013a). This growth is partly internal population increase, but also due to migration from the rural areas – that is also true for the whole region of SEA. The Asian Development Bank (2012) wrote that the population in urban areas increased in the Philippines by 90% between 1990 and 2007, whereas the number of people living in rural areas was constant in the same time period. This can be traced back to the migration of people. When it comes to the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change, the topic of migration is of great importance and should be treated as a possible human response to areas and societies that face a multitude of risk factors (World Bank, 2013a). If the growth in population cannot be absorbed by adequate housing policy, urban settlements are expanding in informal settlements. The share of these areas in the Philippines was 44% (UN-Habitat, 2003) in 2001 for the city of Manila the Rockefeller Foundations (2015) published a share of 20 to 35% of informal settlement. The burden for the population living in informal settlements is increased due to a lack of sanitation, lack of access to water and non-durable housing structures (World Bank, 2013a), which makes them highly vulnerable to climate change. The lack of sufficient adequate housing is also exacerbating the burden of urban heat. Balica et al. (2011) constructed a vulnerability index for 9 major coastal cities worldwide. The index was built upon indicators based on hydro-geological, social, economic and administrative components. Due to its exposure to TCs and flooding, Manila was rated vulnerable in particular on the hydro-geological component. Recent storms illustrated this exposure of Manila: In the year 2009, Typhoon Ketsana induced flood waters that reached nearly 7 m above sea level in some city areas resulting in hundreds of deaths (Balica et al., 2011; WWF, 2009). In a comparison study of the WWF (2009) for Asian mega cities, Manila even reached the highest ranking in terms of vulnerability. For the economic component of the ranking, the capital had the highest vulnerability to coastal floods (Balica et al., 2011). They further stated that the economy of Manila will recover very slow mainly due to the high number of days needed to recover after a flood event in the past and the small length of the drainage system. In total, the city was ranked on the fourth place for today’s vulnerability and could move to the third in the future depending on the scenario used. Regarding Manila, we also want to refer to the work of Bankoff (2003), who analyzed the complex mechanism that leads to the vulnerability of a region. He argues that this is more than the pure exposure to threats. Besides climatic change and rising sea levels, the effects of more localized human activities (i.e. land use practices, ground water extraction, living standards, population growth, and policy responses) also play a role in creating vulnerability. 15

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