relationship between cyclogenesis and the frequency of TCs does not hold for the western North Pacific (WNP). Knutson et al. (2010) summarized the findings of the changes in TCs: globally averaged intensity of TCs is shifted towards stronger storms (2-11% to 2100); in the global average we see a decreasing frequency of TCs (6-34%), but in contradiction high resolution models show for the most intense TCs a small increase and ~20% increase in precipitation in their vicinity due to SST rise. This was confirmed in a regional study by Murakami et al. (2012), who showed that the number of category 5 cyclones is increasing in western North Pacific and the mean maximum surface wind speed is increasing by 7% (3.5°C warming). In another publication, Murakami et al. (2011) stated a growth in average instantaneous maximum wind speed of 9% and a decrease in frequency of 10% in TCs making landfall in the Philippines. The increase in storm-centered rainfall was confirmed for the region of western North Pacific by Emanuel et al. (2008). The IPCC (2013) stated that the projections of the 21st century show that it is likely that the global frequency of TCs will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean TC maximum wind speed and rain rates. However, the confidence in region-specific projections is still relatively low. The frequency of the most intense storms will more likely than not increase in some basins. More extreme precipitation near the centers of TCs making landfall is projected among other regions also for Southeast with medium confidence. There are a large number of publications dealing with the changes in slow-onset variables and EWEs because they are also relevant for the Philippines even when not directly dealing with the country, e.g. publications about sea level rise or ENSO. For the general overview, the summarizing publications of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank are very useful. Many publications referred to in that chapter are included in the IPCC (2013) report: Jourdain et al. (2013), Knutson et al. (2010), Peduzzi et al. (2012), Elsner et al. (2008), Kubota and Chan (2009), Emanuel (2007), Emanuel et al. (2008), Sugi et al. (2009), Murakami et al. (2011/2012), and Sillmann et al. (2013). R.V. Cruz was leading author of a chapter in IPCC (2007). Cruz et al. (2006), Lasco and Boer (2006) and another publication of PAGASA have been cited in that report. We, in particular, recommend these publications. 5.2.3 Impact on human livelihood This section will look at the impacts of climate change in terms of rural and urban livelihood and the impacts on the sector health and infrastructure. The impacts in agriculture will be treated in another section. The changing climate and the corresponding changes in the extreme events occurring in the country will have large impacts on the livelihoods of the population. In 2009, 18% of the country’s population was living in the low-elevation coastal zone and, therefore, suffer from already existing burdens and are further prone to upcoming climate change related threats, e.g. changes in storm surges and SLR (ADB, 2012). 14