A/74/161 food security. Done poorly, carbon dioxide removal efforts could displace other land uses, causing adverse effects on food security, biodiversity and human rights. 22. Climate change is already, at warming of 1°C, having a negative impact on billions of people. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “warming of 1.5°C is not considered ‘safe’ for most nations, communities, ecosystems and sectors and poses significant risks to natural and human systems as compared to the current warming of 1°C.” 22 As temperatures increase, so do the negative impacts. At 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts that droughts and heat waves will be more frequent and twice as long, 100 million more people will face water insecurity, and the risks of an ice-free Arctic and glacierfree mountains will rise substantially. It will be easier and less expensive to ensure adaptive capacity and resilience at 1.5°C compared to 2°C or higher. 23. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified “rapid and farreaching transitions” in energy, land use, urban areas, infrastructure and industrial systems, stating that these changes would be unprecedented in terms of scale and would require deep emission reductions across all sectors. For example, to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the electricity sector must be almost completely decarbonized by 2050. The market share of coal must fall from its current share of 38 per cent to between 1 and 7 per cent by 2050, and even that small amount of coal must deploy carbon capture and storage. The share of renewables would have to gro w from 25 per cent today to 70–80 per cent by 2050. 24. In 2012, the International Energy Agency estimated that two thirds of proven fossil fuel reserves must not be burned if we are to limit warming to 2°C. 23 A similar study published in 2015 concluded that 82 per cent of known coal reserves, 49 per cent of gas reserves and 33 per cent of oil reserves cannot be burned if we are to avoid dangerous climate change of more than 2°C. The future greenhouse gas emissions contained in known reserves of fossil fuels are three times larger than the 2°C carbon budget. 24 The obvious conclusion is that further investments in new fossil fuel generating capacity or exploration for additional fossil fuel resources will either lock in a future that precludes achieving the req uired emission reductions or result in stranded assets. 25. There is some good news. Dramatic declines in the cost of renewable energy are accelerating the implementation of clean energy. Solar electricity costs have declined 75 per cent per watt since 2010. In many countries, wind and solar are now cheaper than fossil fuel electricity. Solar electricity generating capacity now exceeds 550 gigawatts globally, more than 500 times higher than in 2000. Total wind electricity generating capacity has soared from 17 gigawatts in 2000 to over 600 gigawatts today. Some 49 countries, responsible for 36 per cent of global emissions, have already seen their greenhouse gas emissions peak and begin declining. 25 Concurrently addressing climate change and air pollution, since the sources of these problems overlap, could prevent millions of premature deaths every year while securing trillions of dollars in benefits. 26 Eliminating hydrofluorocarbons, combined with increasing energy efficiency in air conditioners and other cooling products, would double the climate benefits and save $2.9 trillion through 2050 by using less electricity. 27 The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate estimates that bold climate action and investment in climate-friendly infrastructure could generate $26 trillion in benefits by 2030, compared with a business-as-usual scenario 28 (see the annex on good practices for additional information 29). __________________ 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 19-11977 IPCC, Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018). International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 (International Energy Agency, 2012). Christophe McGlade and Paul Ekins, “The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2°C”, Nature, vol. 517 (January 2015). UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2018 (Nairobi, UNEP, 2018). Drew Shindell and others, “Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions”, Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 291–295 (March 2018), and Toon Vandyck and others, “Air quality co-benefits for human health and agriculture counterbalance costs to meet Paris Agreement pledges”, Nature Communications, vol. 9 (November 2018). International Energy Agency, The Future of Cooling: Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning (International Energy Agency, 2018). Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Unlocking the Inclusive Growth Story of the 21st Century: Accelerating Climate Action in Urgent Times (Washington, D.C., Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2018). Available at www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Environment/SREnvironment/Pages/Annualreports.aspx . 9/22